US military action against Venezuela is ‘resource war; India unaffected’:India’s crude imports from Latin American nation drops 81% in FY25

The dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by US military on January 4 has sent shockwaves across global capitals. While the action has been officially justified on charges such as narco-terrorism and drug trafficking, analysts widely agree that control over Venezuela’s vast crude oil reserves lies at the heart of the operation. US military action in Venezuela is ‘fundamentally a resource war’ Venezuela possesses around 18% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves—more than Saudi Arabia, Russia, or even the United States. “This is fundamentally a resource war,” said Ajay Srivastava, former trader officer and founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). “Venezuela alone holds more oil than the US and Russia combined, making it a strategic prize in an energy-hungry world.” The United States has in recent years entered into multiple trade and energy arrangements with partners such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, committing to supply petroleum products and LNG. However, these commitments far exceed America’s own crude availability and refining capacity. In this context, Venezuela’s enormous upstream crude potential becomes critically important. “Free access to Venezuelan oil helps the US bridge the gap between ambitious export commitments and limited domestic supply,” Srivastava noted. For India, Venezuela is no longer a major trade or energy partner For India, however, the unfolding crisis is unlikely to have any significant economic or energy impact. Once a major buyer of Venezuelan crude during the 2000s and 2010s, India’s engagement with Venezuela has steadily eroded since 2019 following stringent US sanctions. These sanctions compelled Indian refiners to drastically reduce imports and forced companies such as ONGC Videsh to scale back upstream investments in the Orinoco belt. “As far as India is concerned, Venezuela is no longer a meaningful trade or energy partner,” said Srivastava. “Our exposure has already collapsed due to sanctions, so the current developments do not materially change India’s position.” India’s crude imports from Venezuela drops by 81% Trade data between the two countries underscores this reality. In FY2025, India’s total imports from Venezuela stood at just $364.5 million. Crude oil imports were valued at $255.3 million—an 81.3% decline from $1.4 billion in FY2024. India’s exports to Venezuela were even smaller, amounting to $95.3 million, primarily pharmaceuticals worth $41.4 million. Overall bilateral trade remains marginal and continues to shrink. Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions, and geographical distance, India’s economy and energy security are effectively insulated from the Venezuelan shock. “There is no supply disruption risk for India because Venezuela had already fallen out of our energy basket,” Srivastava said. Venezuelan crisis highlights a troubling global trend At a broader level, the episode highlights a troubling global trend. With international institutions weakened and most major powers—except China and Russia—remaining silent, unilateral actions to secure raw materials and energy resources may become more frequent. “We are entering a ‘might is right’ phase of global order,” warned Srivastava. For India, the lesson is clear. Strategic autonomy must be preserved, sovereignty-diluting arrangements avoided, and access to critical raw materials secured through diversified, geopolitically balanced partnerships—without succumbing to external pressure, Srivastava notes.