Datia bypoll on 30 July:Results on 3 August; notification on 6 July

The Election Commission on Thursday announced the schedule for the Datia Assembly by-election. The official notification for the bypoll will be issued on July 6. Candidates can file their nominations until July 13, while scrutiny of nomination papers will take place on July 14. The last date for withdrawal of nominations is July 16. Polling will be held on July 30, followed by the counting of votes on August 3. The entire election process will be completed by August 4. Model Code of Conduct (MCC) implemented with immediate effect As per the official notification of the Election Commission of India (ECI), the Model Code of Conduct has been implemented with immediate effect in the Datia Assembly constituency. Voting will be conducted at all centres through EVMs and VVPATs. MLA Rajendra Bharti’s membership was terminated By-elections are being held on the Datia assembly seat because after Congress MLA Rajendra Bharti received a sentence of more than two years, his assembly membership automatically ceased. Following this, the Madhya Pradesh Assembly Secretariat declared the seat vacant. This action was taken under the Supreme Court’s Lily Thomas vs. Union of India judgment, Section 8 of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, and Article 191(1)(e) of the Constitution. 1998 FD fraud case In 1998, an alleged fraud involving a Fixed Deposit (FD) at the Datia Cooperative Rural Development Bank came to light. Investigators alleged that bank records were manipulated to extend the FD’s tenure from three years to 15 years. Based on the altered records, interest payments were allegedly withdrawn between 1999 and 2011. At the time, Rajendra Bharti was the bank’s chairman and also a trustee of the concerned institution. The case was later investigated, and a chargesheet was filed. Court conviction and disqualification On April 1, 2026, a special MP-MLA court convicted Rajendra Bharti in the 28-year-old bank fraud and forgery case and sent him to judicial custody. The following day, April 2, the court sentenced him to three years’ imprisonment and imposed a fine of ₹1 lakh. While the court stayed the execution of the sentence for 60 days to allow him to appeal before the High Court, the conviction itself remained in force. The same day, the Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly Secretariat issued a notification terminating Bharti’s membership with effect from April 2. Consequently, the Datia Assembly seat was declared vacant and the Election Commission was informed. Why was the assembly seat declared vacant immediately? Under Section 8(3) of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, any MLA convicted and sentenced to two years or more is disqualified. Following the Supreme Court’s 2013 Lily Thomas judgment, such disqualification takes effect immediately upon conviction. Filing an appeal does not restore membership unless the High Court stays the conviction or the disqualification. Why Narottam Mishra lost in 2023 Basai factor proved decisive The urban area of Basai played a key role in Narottam Mishra’s defeat in the 2023 Assembly election. Out of 13 counting rounds, he led in only three. By the 10th round, Rajendra Bharti had built a lead of nearly 8,000 votes. The BJP had hoped to repeat the “Basai miracle” of 2018, when strong support from the area helped Mishra secure victory. However, in 2023 he trailed by 866 votes in the 11th round and 379 votes in the 12th. Although he gained a lead of 735 votes in the final round, it was insufficient, and he eventually lost by 7,742 votes. Public opinion: Overconfidence and internal infighting According to advocate Itrat Ali Zaidi, while development work was undertaken, voters were unhappy with the functioning of Mishra’s close associates. He cited allegations of irregularities in the 2022 municipal elections and delays in resolving local civic issues, including the long-pending reconstruction of the wall at Lala Ka Talab, as factors behind the defeat. Several local residents also blamed internal factionalism within the BJP. Parasram Srivastava and Raju Tyagi said party workers became complacent and failed to campaign effectively. BJP office in-charge Rohit Dubey also acknowledged that overconfidence among workers contributed to the loss. Rajendra Bharti’s two-and-a-half-year tenure Public opinion on Bharti’s tenure remains divided. Parasram Srivastava claimed Bharti remained inaccessible to the public. Advocate Itrat Ali Zaidi said Bharti often attributed administrative and policing challenges to Narottam Mishra’s influence. Raju Tyagi and Shalas Tripathi alleged that MLA funds were spent outside the constituency and that Assembly questions were used to pressure officials. However, Congress district president Rajendra Dangi rejected these allegations, saying Bharti completed as many development works as possible despite administrative non-cooperation. Datia By-election: Key contenders Several Congress leaders are competing for the party ticket. Following his disqualification, Rajendra Bharti is lobbying for his son, Anuj Bharti, to be fielded. Awadhesh Nayak, former vice-chairman of the Textbook Corporation who joined Congress ahead of the 2023 election, is also considered a strong contender. On the BJP side, former Home Minister Dr. Narottam Mishra is widely expected to contest. Damodar Yadav is set to contest from the Azad Samaj Party (ASP). He says the party has already selected him as its candidate, with only the formal announcement pending. 1. Narottam Mishra (BJP): Focused on Damage Control Since Rajendra Bharti’s disqualification, Mishra has intensified his outreach, holding social conferences and community meetings to reconnect with party workers and voters. He has organised more than a dozen public programmes over the past two months. According to party sources, the BJP is also preparing a major government announcement for Datia. Mishra reportedly met Chief Minister Dr. Mohan Yadav on June 1 to discuss development initiatives. The party says it has learned from its mistakes in the 2023 election. 2. Congress: Multiple aspirants for one ticket The Congress is witnessing intense competition over the ticket. Rajendra Bharti is seeking the nomination for his son, Anuj Bharti. Political circles suggest he may rebel if denied the ticket after reportedly meeting Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav. Awadhesh Nayak, who stepped aside during the last election, considers himself the natural claimant, while supporters of former MLA Ghanshyam Singh are also actively lobbying. Congress district president Ashok Dangi, however, dismissed reports of factionalism, saying the party would decide the candidate based on survey findings. 3. Damodar Yadav (Azad Samaj Party): Potential vote splitter Damodar Yadav has been strengthening his campaign through farmer conferences and organisational meetings. He claims that workers from both the BSP and Congress are joining his party. Political observers believe his candidacy could significantly dent the Congress vote base. Expert view: Caste equations likely to decide the by-election Senior journalist Ravi Thakur believes caste arithmetic, rather than local issues, will determine the outcome.