Crores earned by placing bets before Trump’s Iran-war related announcements:Insider trading suspicions deepen; investors’ trust shaken

During the second term of US President Donald Trump, an interesting and controversial trend has been observed. Many traders (people who bet in the stock market) were seen placing bets worth millions of dollars just before major announcements. BBC analyzed trade data from different financial markets and matched it with the timing of Trump’s major statements and announcements. A pattern emerged showing that many times, just hours or minutes before his statements, there was a sudden surge in trading activity. Some experts believe this could be a case of insider trading. That is, information was being leaked beforehand, which was playing with the trust of common investors. Meanwhile, some other experts say the matter is not so straightforward. Some traders have now become experts at anticipating Trump’s decisions and statements in advance. Lets understand using these 5 examples how some select people made profits: February 28, 2026: 6 new accounts after attack on Iran Blockchain analysis site ‘Bubblemaps’ revealed that 6 new accounts were suddenly created in February. Bets: All these accounts placed heavy bets in favor of a US attack on Iran by February 28. Result: As soon as Trump confirmed the attack, these accounts earned a total of ₹9.9 crore ($1.2 million). Pattern: 5 of these accounts never placed any bet after this. Another account later earned ₹1.35 crore more by correctly predicting the ceasefire. January 3, 2026: Account created on Maduro prediction, closed after earnings Online prediction markets (like Polymarket and Kalshi) also came under suspicion. Donald Trump Junior is associated with these platforms. In December 2025, a new account named ‘Burdensome-Mix’ was created. Between December 30 and January 2, this account placed a total of $32,500 on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro leaving office. Maduro was removed from office on January 3. That account won $436,000 (approximately ₹4 crore) and immediately changed its username and became inactive. This is why people suspect that perhaps he had inside information beforehand. March 23, 2026: Profit of more than ₹250 crore in 14 minutes of trading Trump announced on ‘Truth Social’ a post about resolving issues with Tehran. Immediately after the post, the stock market surged and American oil prices recorded a sharp decline. Suspicious Activity: Large bets were placed on oil prices falling 14 minutes before Trump’s post. This is called ‘short selling’, in which traders make deals to sell oil at high prices and profit by buying it cheaply when prices fall. With a drop of $15 per barrel, someone made an estimated profit of more than 250 crore rupees during that suspicious time. Timeline: March 9, 2026: Profit made by betting on oil 47 minutes earlier On the 9th day of the Iran war, Trump claimed in an interview that the conflict had ended. The news came on social media at 7:16 PM, causing oil prices to drop 25%. However, suspicious trading had begun 47 minutes earlier (at 6:29 PM). Some investors made a huge profit of approximately 460 crores by betting on 4,000 contracts through ‘short selling’, which indicates insider trading. Timeline: April 2, 2025: 90-day pause on tariffs, trading surges up to 30 times Trump imposed heavy tariffs on global imports, but after a week suddenly gave 90 days relief to other countries except China. This announcement created a tsunami in the market and the SP 500 Index jumped 9.5%, which was the biggest surge since World War II. Suspiciously, at 6:00 PM, trading speed suddenly crossed 10,000 contracts per minute. By placing a bet of 16.5 crores, some traders earned a profit of 165 crores. Lawmakers demanded an investigation into this. Timeline: Insider trading has been illegal in America for 93 years Insider trading is considered illegal because in this, some people get access to confidential information that ordinary investors don’t have. Based on this information, they invest money beforehand and later earn huge profits. This eliminates equality in the market and breaks the trust of common people. In America, insider trading has been illegal since 1933. In 2012, the rules were made stricter and government officials, members of parliament, and their staff also came under the purview of this law. This means if any leader or government person receives inside information, they cannot use it to trade. But the real problem is that it is very difficult to secure punishment in such cases. Under the law, it is necessary to prove that the information was truly confidential, it was deliberately leaked, and the person who traded had received that inside information. If this entire chain is not proven, then the case does not proceed. Professor Paul Odin of ESSEC Business School says that many times, looking at trading patterns, it becomes clear that someone had prior information, such as heavy bets being placed suddenly just before a major announcement. But until it is known where the information came from and who provided it, taking legal action becomes almost impossible.