Datia bypoll caste maths:Brahmins, Jatavs equal in number; OBC voters dominate, Congress eyes Bharti’s son

Voting for the Datia assembly seat in Madhya Pradesh will be held on July 30 and counting on August 3. As soon as the election schedule was announced, political parties became more active. In Congress, there is a race among candidates for tickets. Meanwhile, former Home Minister Dr Narottam Mishra from BJP and Damodar Yadav from the Azad Samaj Party (ASP) have emerged as the single contenders in their respective parties. In Datia, the number of Other Backwards Classes (OBC) voters is around 95 thousand, which is approximately 53% of the total voters. In this category, Yadav and Kushwaha-Kachhi voters are around 17 thousand, Lodhi around 15 thousand, Baghel-Pal approximately 10 thousand, while other OBCs combined make up around 20 thousand voters. Experts believe that victory on this seat is not possible with the support of only one community. The balance will tip in favour of whichever side the Brahmin, Ahirwar, Yadav, Kushwaha, Lodhi, and Muslim votes go. The contest has been very close in previous elections here as well. In 2023, Congress defeated BJP by 7,742 votes. Ahirwar and Brahmin are the most influential castes According to caste-wise data, the two largest single castes in Datia are Brahmin and Ahirwar. The estimated number of both is around 33-33 thousand. BJP has traditionally been considered strong among Brahmin voters, while Congress has had influence among Scheduled Castes, especially the Ahirwar community. Thus, the inclination of these two groups can change the direction of the entire election. If the general category aligns, the contest will be one-sided The estimated number of general category voters in the Datia assembly constituency is around 60 thousand. Among these, Brahmins are the most numerous. Additionally, Baniya, Rajput, Kayastha, and Sindhi communities are also present in significant numbers. If the general category vote unites in favor of one party, the contest can also become one-sided. Scheduled Caste and Muslim voters can change the outcome In Datia, Scheduled Caste voters are estimated to be around 58 thousand. Among them, the Ahirwar community alone constitutes the largest share. Besides this, Khatik, Valmiki, Kori, and Jatav communities are also in a position to influence election results at several booths. The estimated number of Muslim voters is around 8 thousand. Although this number may not be very large, in a close contest, this vote bank can prove decisive for any candidate. Former MLA Rajendra Bharti is pushing hard for his son After Congress MLA Rajendra Bharti from Datia was disqualified, a fierce battle has erupted in Congress for a candidate for the by-election. Bharti is making every effort to get a ticket for his son Anuj. Meanwhile, Awadhesh Nayak, former vice-chairman of the Textbook Corporation, who left BJP and joined Congress before the 2023 elections, is also showing his strength. In 2023, Congress had first declared Awadhesh Nayak as the candidate, but after protests from Rajendra Bharti’s supporters, the party fielded Rajendra Bharti in the election. Now Awadhesh is demanding a ticket in exchange for his sacrifice. The name of former Datia MLA Ghanshyam Singh is also included in the race of contenders.