‘Iran war can hit India’s farmers’ income’:Rice, cotton, soybean, bajra jowar prices may increase, indicates report

Citing a report of a research firm, Systematix, news daily, ANI, says that the repercussions of Iran war and anticipated below normal rainfall may impact farmer incomes, agricultural output, rural demand, and food inflation in India. The report paints a concerning picture for India’s rural economy in 2026. The report indicates that farmers in India are potentially facing major challenges that could impact their income and livelihoods resulting in a sharp increase in the cost of essential farming supplies like fertilizers . The report highlights the combined effect of these issues. A less-than-ideal monsoon could lead to lower crop yields, meaning farmers won’t be able to grow as much crops. At the same time, the rising cost of farming essentials like fertilizers and fuel will make it more expensive for them to farm. This situation could have a ripple effect throughout the rural economy. If farmers earn less money, they’ll likely spend less on other goods and services, impacting businesses that rely on rural consumers. It could also lead to higher food prices for everyone, as the supply of crops would decrease. With sowing for India’s Kharif season about to kick-off from June, prices of crops like rice, cotton, millets, maize, etc could be at risk. Kharif season runs from June to October: The Kharif season in India typically runs from June to October, aligned with the southwest monsoon rains. Sowing usually begins with the first rains in June or July, while harvesting takes place at the end of the monsoon season, generally between September and October or sometimes into November. Kharif Crops: Rice, Cotton, Soybean, Millets (Bajra, Jowar). The report points out that weather patterns are shifting, with a higher chance of a dry spell developing later in the monsoon season. This is particularly worrying for the northern, western, and central parts of India, which depend heavily on monsoon rains for their crops. Which crops are grown in northern, western, and central parts of India? Northern India specializes in wheat, rice, and sugarcane. Western India focuses on cotton, groundnuts, and millets, while Central India is a major hub for soybeans, pulses, and wheat. Major Crops by Region: Northern India (Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, JK): Major Crops: Wheat (Rabi), Rice (Kharif), Sugarcane, Maize, Barley, and Mustard. Western India (Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan): Major Crops: Cotton, Groundnut, Sugarcane, Millets (Jowar, Bajra), and Pulses (lentils, chickpeas). Central India (Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh): Major Crops: Soybean, Wheat, Pulses (Arhar, Gram), Oilseeds, and Rice. Adding to the problem is the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. This conflict is disrupting shipping routes, making it harder and more expensive to import crucial farming supplies like fertilizers. As a result, fertilizer prices are already going up, putting a financial strain on Indian farmers. The Indian government has already stepped in and might even need to provide more financial assistance to farmers through subsidies. However, if global prices for fertilizers and fuel remain high, and the monsoon season is weak, the government’s subsidy bill could increase significantly, potentially straining the national budget. The report estimates this increase could be between ₹10,000 crore and ₹25,000 crore in the next financial year. In short, India’s rural economy is bracing for a potentially difficult year ahead.