Investing during war raises market dilemma:Experts urge investors to follow three rules before buying or selling shares amid confusion

Whether it’s the war between America-Israel and Iran or the Russia-Ukraine war that has been going on for the last 4 years, whenever instability spreads in the world, it directly affects the common man’s pocket and their stock market portfolio. Currently, due to global uncertainty, crude oil prices have jumped directly from $72 to $120. This burning price has created a shaking effect in the Indian stock market. The market has fallen by 15 to 20%. Many giant blue-chip companies have come down 20 to 60% from their all-time highs. If investments are made in the stock market without proper study, there is no option left but to sell the stock. Moreover, among those who invested in the stock market after 2020, many youngsters have been attracted to speculative activities. They are doing calls and puts. Due to being more active in it, over time they end up losing money. In such a fearful and uncertain situation, should one sell shares and exit now or is wartime the best time to buy? Can gold still be considered a safe haven? To find answers to such questions in investors’ minds, Divya Bhaskar spoke with ‘Investor Point’ founder and market expert Jaydevsinh Chudasama and ‘Aapka Investment’ Managing Director Hitesh Somani. Find out what they are saying in today’s Sunday Big Story. Gold and silver movement disappointing for first time in 100 years During war situations in the last 100 years of history, investors were always attracted to gold and silver as safe havens, but after many years it has happened that during war there are major fluctuations in gold-silver prices. Now even gold and silver cannot be considered as safe havens anymore. The movement of gold and silver prices over the last few days has been very disappointing for investors. Such a situation has been seen for the first time in India’s 100-year history. ‘India has been greatly affected by the war situation’ Jaydevsinh Chudasama considers this war situation very critical for all countries worldwide.
He said, “Asian countries and South Asian countries have been most affected in this situation. If we talk about India, India is seen to be greatly affected in this war situation because 80% of India’s energy sources are dependent on Gulf countries. This can be considered a very challenging time for the Indian economy”. ‘Economy has also been greatly impacted’ According to Hitesh, “Whenever a global war situation arises, not just in India but global markets tend to weaken. Along with India’s market, the global market is also going down just as much. The current war situation that has emerged was not this much expected”. He added, “This war has been going on for quite long. Many countries have suffered major losses due to this war. Many refineries in the Middle East have been attacked. In such circumstances, the economy has also been greatly impacted. As a result, effects can be seen in the GDP growth rate as well”. ‘These prices will also come down quickly’
He further said, “Currently there is discussion about crude oil everywhere and it is in high demand but it is not advisable to invest in it because the current spike in its price is only due to the war. Once the war ends and the situation returns to normal, these prices will also come down just as quickly. Crude oil prices had suddenly dropped when news of ceasefire came”. Regarding the Indian stock market, Jaydevsinh said, “Until the war started, the Indian stock market was relatively stable, but after the war, it fell by 15-20%. The stock-specific damage has been substantial. The prices of 75% of BSE500 companies have fallen approximately 20-60% from their lifetime best levels. Investors’ portfolios also appear to have suffered significant damage. The Indian stock market, in terms of Sensex and Nifty, is trading 15-20% below its levels. If the market falls another 5-10% from here, it could have an impact”. ‘Despite ongoing war, Indian stock market stands very strong’ According to him, “Currently Nifty and Sensex have fallen below their all-time lows. During wartime situations, the market often sees a 40-50% fall. If we talk about the Indian stock market, currently every negative news is turning positive for the Indian share market. Despite the ongoing Iran war, the Indian stock market stands very strong. This will become a long-term story for the Indian economy”. He further said, “Portfolio means not just a group of stocks but should also be a group of assets. When we create a portfolio, it includes equity shares. It also includes bonds of gold and silver, so when one asset class doesn’t perform, another overcomes it. Looking at the history of past years, there hasn’t been any special return, but if you have commodity ETFs meaning Exchange Traded Funds or gold ETFs and they perform well, your portfolio gains”. In such a situation, experts give some advice to investors. Jaydevsinh further said, “Whenever you invest, start early. Maintain regularity in whatever you invest in. Properly distribute investments across suitable options. If investors strictly follow these 3 rules, they will definitely get good results. It is not appropriate to invest all capital in a single segment just by looking at good results obtained in the past”. ‘Your investment should be in a bunch and in a portfolio’ Hitesh Somani advised investors by saying, “Now is the time for high-on tips. The more the market falls, the more you should keep investing in the market. Instead of staying stock-specific, invest money in the market because when the economy starts growing, it will have a very positive impact on the Sensex”. He added, “Your investment should be in a bunch and in a portfolio which will show positive effects in the coming days. On the other hand, investors should also make their buy-on-dip action plan. So that they can buy Nifty Bees, Gold Bees. Invest in Nifty at every thousand point drop and average it out so that when it grows, you will get good profit”. ‘Every market decline is only temporary’ According to him, “In such situations, investors should invest with the right mindset. This way, if any correction comes, they won’t feel too distressed. If someone has 100 rupees, they should plan to buy in small portions. Looking at the last 3-4 decades, this is not the first time that there has been a significant decline from the top level. Even a short while ago, there was an impact of global instability, but over time, every decline proves that it was only temporary”. ‘Currently the market is news-based’
Hitesh shared a story about how important the Indian stock market is at a global level. He said, “Based on my experience, research and study of charts, I can say that I am seeing strong bullish returns in the market only in 2026, but this is a time of war. Therefore, no situation is in anyone’s hands. On the other hand, it’s also uncertain what decision Trump will take. Currently the market is news-based”. He added, “If we talk about a few days ago, when the Indian stock market closed at 3:30 PM, Nifty closed at minus 600 points. At this time, suddenly a leader’s post comes. In which he says that now there is a ceasefire. The declaration of this news after the Indian stock market closed and a gap up of 700 to 800 points the very next day shows somewhere how much value the Indian market holds”. (Note-Investment in stock market is subject to risks. The views expressed above are expert’s personal opinions. You should consult your financial advisor before making any investment.)