Did India clock high GDP because of new base year?:Experts weigh in as BJP opposition get into loggerheads

The issue of how much is India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has sparked widespread debate among the country’s eminent economists. Opposition parties say Prime Minister PM Narendra Modi’s claim that the nation achieved a ‘herculean feat’ of 7.8% GDP growth rate in the first quarter of the financial year 2026-27 is another ‘jumla’, accusing the Modi government of misleading the people. While the BJP stalwarts stand firm with the prime minister. So, let’s see how true is PM Modi’s claim of India clocking high GDP growth: Former finance secretary S C Garg had said India’s economy actually grew by 2.6% in Q1 FY27 as against the claimed 7.8%. Garg said that the GDP in Q1 FY26 last year was ₹86 lakh crore, which was revised down to ₹80 lakh crore, and that had that not been done, the GDP growth would have been only 2.6% in Q1 FY27. 7.8% looks impressive on the face of it, but we should get into the reality of it. The last last year’s GDP growth in the first quarter was also 7.8%. Which is claimed for the current year as well. Last year’s GDP has been revised down to 6.9%. So if you revise the last year’s GDP down from what was claimed last year, this year goes up. But that’s not that doesn’t explain the whole of it. -Former finance secretary S C Garg to NDTV The government has released GDP figures for at least the last one year as per both the old base year of 2011-12 and new base year of 2022-23. In the graphics, given above, going by the claim of Garg, the GDP grew at 7.8% in both Q1 FY26 and Q1 FY27. This way, India clocked GDP of 0% on yearly basis. But, one can’t compare GDP based on two separate base years which have to be the same for the comparison. If we keep the base year same, then, India did clock an increase in rate of growth of GDP on annual basis from 6.9% in Q1 FY26 to 7.8% in Q1 FY27. Why govt revised last year’s GDP figures? So, the question is why the government revised last year’s GDP for the first quarter of 2025-26 down to ₹80.00 lakh crore from the earlier estimate of ₹86.05 lakh crore. Some people assumed this was done deliberately to make the current year’s growth look better. According to a press release of the Centre, when the government first announced the ₹86.05 lakh crore figure, it was using the old base year of 2011-12. In February 2026, the ministry introduced a new GDP series with a base year of 2022-23. Under this new series, the figure naturally adjusted to ₹80.32 lakh crore. Later, the figure was updated to ₹80.44 lakh crore, and again to ₹80.00 lakh crore. The country’s growth rates are always calculated using the same series to ensure a fair comparison. Who cares about GDP: Raghuram Rajan If we’re growing so fast, why aren’t we creating more jobs—more good jobs? And why is investment not taking place? Why are our industrialists so reluctant to invest? Why is FDI not coming in in much bigger ways? -Former RBI governor, Raghuram Rajan to a YouTube channel Piyush Goyal slams Garg Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal slammed the former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg and former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan after both expressed doubts over the latest GDP numbers announced by the government, calling them “jobless” people who want to mislead the public over the data. Congress president: India’s unemployment is at a 50-year-high Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said unemployment is at a 50-year-high and 40% of young graduates are jobless. One in six young Indians aged 15 to 29 unemployed in July 2026 and the promise of two crore jobs every year lies shattered, he said.
He pointed out that retail inflation at a 19-month high with sugar, onion, tomato, dal, cooking oil, rice, milk and every kitchen staple on fire. Petrol, Diesel, LPG and CNG is becoming unaffordable. Middle class families are somehow battling to survive and the poor has given up hope. -Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge SBI rejects criticism of India’s 7.8% Q1 GDP growth State Bank of India (SBI) also rejected criticism of India’s 7.8% real GDP growth in the first quarter of FY27, saying the calculation that puts the GDP growth at 2.6% is based on an incorrect comparison of GDP numbers. GDP revision not a new thing in India: SBI The SBI report also said that revisions are a normal part of GDP estimates. It noted that quarterly numbers can be revised both upwards and downwards. During FY22-25, quarterly data saw 25 upward revisions and 12 downward revisions. The report also noted that the latest Q1 FY27 GDP figure released in August 2026 will undergo further revisions and will only be finalised by February 2029. “Revisions are part and parcel of a GDP number,” SBI said. Base-year is usually changed every 5 years The base year is changed from time to time to record major changes occurring in the economy over time. Usually the ministry updates the data series every five years, but this work was delayed due to the COVID pandemic and GST implementation. Why was the method of measuring GDP changed? The 2011-12 scale had become 14 years old. At that time, things like UPI, Zomato, OTT, gig economy didn’t even exist. That’s why it was necessary. Why was 2022-23 chosen as the base year? This year was ‘normal’. Corona had ended. The economy was stable. Digital India had been established. The base year is always chosen when there is neither too much surge nor decline. What impact will this have on the common man? There won’t be a direct impact on the pocket, but with accurate data, the government will make better policies. Money will be invested in the right places and foreign investment will also increase, which will gradually benefit the common citizen. Have the figures been changed or has something been hidden? No. When measured with a new scale, the measurement changes, this is natural. America, Britain, China all do the same. Changing figures is a sign of accuracy. At what interval should it be changed? According to international standards, it should be changed every 5 to 10 years. In the country, 5 years is fixed, but there was a delay in 2017-18 due to demonetization and GST. After that, COVID came, so it was done now. What is Base Year? Base year is the year whose prices are considered ‘fixed’ to measure today’s economic progress. It helps show the country’s ‘real’ growth by removing the effect of inflation. Example: If a pen cost ₹5 in 2011 and costs ₹10 today. If we are still making 100 pens today, then according to 2011, GDP will show ₹500. Whereas according to today’s calculation, it will be ₹1,000. Base year helps us understand whether we are making more pens or the pen has just become expensive.