Govt to release India’s April 2026 inflation data today:Experts says prices of goods services can rise by up to 4%

The Central Government is expected to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation data for the month of April 2026 at 4 pm on Tuesday, 12 May, 2026. March retail inflation rose to 3.40%: Govt While, according to the NSO, India’s retail inflation had risen to 3.40% in March 2026 from ⁠3.21% in February. The CPI inflation had risen in both the rural and urban segments to 3.63% and 3.11%, respectively, in March.
Note: April 2025 to December 2025 inflation data is based on old base year 2012. CPI for January 2026 onwards is based on the new base year 2024. What do experts say? April inflation can rise to up to 4%: Former BSE chairman S.Ravi, former BSE chairman, says that heatwaves and lower than expected supply in the market may lead to spike in the prices of perishables and essential commodities like edible oils. This might put upward pressure on country’s overall inflation. According to him, the annual percentage rise in prices of goods and services may surge to up to 4% in April 2026. The upcoming release of the consumer price index (CPI) data for April 2026 is expected to reveal a hardening of headline inflation, with projections gravitating toward the 3.8% to 4.0% range, up from March’s 3.4%. This anticipated uptick is primarily driven by an adverse base effect and a significant firming of the food basket, particularly as heatwaves and lower-than-expected arrivals have caused a spike in the prices of perishables and essential commodities like edible oils. -S.Ravi (former BSE chairman and founder Ravi Rajan and company) El Nino can increase inflation in India: SBI According to newsagency, ANI, the country’s largest public sector lender, the State Bank of India (SBI) said in a report that factors like El Nino, dynamic crude oil and commodity prices might increase inflation. Albeit, a robust rabi crop season would ensure an abundant food supply in the market containing prices. Volatility in crude oil and other commodity prices along-with possible El Nino conditions impart considerable volatility to inflation. However, the near-term food supply prospects have been boosted by robust rabi crop providing some comfort. -SBI Report by ANI Inflation expected to hit 4% in April as food and global risks rise: Bank of Baroda ANI said Bank of Baroda mentioned in a report that CPI was expected to settle at 4% in April 2026, due to risk of building pressure in food and global commodity prices. The report highlighted that global energy, metals, and food prices are becoming “stickier” due to the ongoing impact of war. The report warned that arrivals of tomato, onion and potato might be impacted in the coming months. The upward pressure on prices is visible for Tomato, Onion, edible oils and other miscellaneous items.” -Bank of Baroda report Impact of Iran war on India’s inflation – What RBI said? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in the recently held Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) April 2026 meet, had pegged India’s FY27 inflation at 4.6%, much higher than 2.1% in FY26. Governor, Sanjay Malhotra had said that there were risks that inflation might rise in India due to high crude oil prices and probable weather disturbances. Crude oil prices had gone up to as high as $126 per barrel during the Iran war. This is expected to have a cascading effect on prices of those commodities that are especially shipped from the Gulf countries. If this happens, then, April would be the sixth straight month of rise in the country’s inflation.
Govt to roll out inflation on new base year series for the 4th time The April 2026 inflation data is going to be the fourth time that the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) would release inflation figures under the new base year 2024. Till December 2025, the Centre had rolled out figures of the annual percentage rise in prices of goods and services based on the old base year series of 2012. How inflation is calculated? Retail inflation is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks changes in prices of everyday items such as food, fuel and services. Inflation rises when demand outpaces supply and falls when supply exceeds demand.