Will Iran-Israel war make petrol diesel expensive?:Sea route closure to spike gold silver prices, put crude oil supply in crisis

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has died in attacks by Israel and the US. This could impact India’s oil, stock market and gold-silver prices. This is because there are fears of closure of the world’s most important oil route ‘Strait of Hormuz’. This will put half of India’s monthly oil supply at risk. The blockage of Strait of Hormuz will also affect the common man: According to data from analytics firm Kepler, India imported about 50% of its crude oil requirements through this route in January-February 2026. If this route is closed, crude oil supply will suddenly drop and prices will rise rapidly. Experts say- Crude oil could go up to $150 Experts believe that if Iran blocks this route even for a single day, crude oil prices in the international market could reach $120 to $150 per barrel. Currently, the price of Brent crude is over $72. According to Muyu Xu, Senior Crude Analyst at Kepler Limited, attempts by Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz will completely disrupt the supply chain. Amid fears of military action in February, oil prices have already reached a 7-month high. According to Bloomberg’s analysis, if this route becomes unsafe, oil tankers will have to operate under Western naval protection. This will slow down the pace of shipments. 20% of world’s total petroleum passes through Hormuz The Hormuz Strait is a 167 km-long waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Both its entrances are about 50 km wide, while the narrowest part is about 33 km wide. It has a designated 3 km-wide shipping lane for incoming and outgoing maritime traffic. Iran will also suffer if Hormuz is closed If the Strait of Hormuz closes, Iran’s own economy could be devastated as it won’t be able to export its oil. Additionally, China is Iran’s biggest oil buyer. If supply is disrupted, Iran’s relations with China could deteriorate. According to data, in 2025 Iran transported the most oil through this route since 2018. Saudi Arabia has ‘East-West Pipeline’ Saudi Arabia has the ‘East-West Pipeline’ as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. This 746-mile-long pipeline runs from one end of the country to the other end (Red Sea Terminal). Through this, 50 lakh barrels of crude oil can be sent daily. India and other Asian countries are keeping an eye on such alternative routes and secure reserves. India Increasing Oil Imports from Other Countries The government is already preparing to deal with this potential crisis. According to sources, India is increasing oil purchases from suppliers outside Gulf countries. Additionally, if needed, India can also draw oil from its ‘Strategic Petroleum Reserve’ (SPR).