Govt to release December 2025 retail inflation data today:Analysts expect CPI inflation below RBI’s 4% target for the 11th straight month

India’s Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI) is expected to publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation data for the month of December 2025 at 4 pm on Monday, 12 January 2026. The retail inflation is expected to inch upwards, sequentially, from 0.71% in November. The rate of annual rise in prices of goods and services had increased for the first time in the last three months to 0.71% in November 2025. Before that, the inflation print in the preceding month of October was reported to be at a record low of 0.25%. The CPI inflation had inched up in both the rural and urban segments to 0.10% and 1.40%, respectively, in November. The inflation figures had remained below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target of 4% for the 10th straight month in November. Retail Inflation Trends in last 14 months: Prices of food items like vegetables have begun to increase since November 2025: Prices of food items like vegetables had largely fallen in the country till October 2025, but, since November, the rates have begun to rise. In 2025, the vegetable inflation had largely fallen in the country at least till October. To be accurate, the prices of vegetables have only reduced till July 2025. Albeit, in November, it slightly inched towards (-)22.20%. Albeit, the print continued to be negative for the entire of 2025. Food inflation, too, had more or less the same trajectory. The annual rate of rise in prices of food items had largely fallen in 2025 till July 2025. Or in other words, food items continued to become cheaper till mid 2025. After that, there were marginal spikes in inflation in subsequent months. In November, it rose to (-) 2.78%. Non-veg foods became expensive, last month
While, prices of non-vegetarian foods like egg, meat and fish remained subdued till October 2025, but, their rates surged considerably in November. Oil Fats inflation fell consecutively in last 3 months: The oil fats inflation had fallen consecutively in the last 3 months running into November when it declined to 7.87%. RBI reduced India’s inflation projections for FY25 FY26 While delivering the previous MPC statement in December 2025, the RBI governor Malhotra had said that the rate-setting panel had reduced India’s inflation projections for the remainder of FY26 and also for the first two quarters of the next fiscal. Method of measuring inflation GDP will change from February:Govt mulls new base year for calculation, instead of 2011-12 period The central government is going to make major changes in the parameters for measuring the country’s economy. From February 2026, retail inflation (CPI) and the country’s growth rate i.e. GDP figures will be released with a new series (new base year). Also from May 2026, Industrial Production i.e. IIP figures will also be released in the new series. The new base year for GDP and IIP will be 2022-23. While the base year for retail inflation will be 2024. The Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI) has completed its preparation. Currently, GDP and retail inflation figures are calculated based on the old base year 2011-12. While in many countries of the world, this is updated every 5 years.