‘50% of silver rally was just bubble’:Experts pick gold platinum; common man to wait till 2027-end to recover money invested in silver

In early 2026, silver was the most talked-about investing asset among the common men in India. Prices had surged to a historic high of ₹3.86 lakh per kg on 29 January 2026, according to IBJA. This attracted widespread investor interest. However, as the year unfolded, silver lost its momentum and yielded negative returns. To break down why silver cooled off and where it is heading next, four commodity experts share their analytical perspectives. The 2026 Price Rollercoaster Silver experienced major price swings throughout the year. The Peak: MCX silver prices surged close to ₹4.20 lakh per kg in January 2026. The Drop: Prices have fallen to ₹2.22 lakh per kg as of 1 October. The white metal has become cheaper by ₹1.64 lakh per kg or by 42%. Long-Term Performance: Despite the 2026 slowdown, silver has delivered gains of 65.46% over 1 year, 157.33% over 2 years, 233.14% over 3 years, and 288.99% over 5 years. Silver bubble: Amit Modak, Director of P. N. Gadgil Sons, notes that silver jumped from ₹1 lakh per kg to nearly ₹4 lakh per kg in just a few months leading up to January 2026. He explains that about 50% of that price rise was supported by real demand, while the remaining 50% was driven by market speculation and misinformation. When that speculation cleared around late January, prices corrected sharply. Key Reasons Behind the Silver Price Correction: Experts highlight several key factors that pulled silver prices down: Post-Rally Cooling: Mukul Devpura, Director Co-Founder of WeCredit, explains that silver’s flat performance is a reaction to its massive 2025 rally. The trade became overcrowded, triggering profit-taking. Higher US Interest Rates: The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to combat sticky inflation. Higher interest yields made non-paying assets like silver less attractive to global investors. A Stronger US Dollar: A stronger dollar put additional downward pressure on metal prices. Slower Industrial Jewellery Demand: Yash Kataria, CEO of Kataria Jewellers, highlights that global industrial demand for silver is expected to fall by 2% in 2026 as solar manufacturers cut silver usage. Additionally, global jewellery demand is projected to drop by over 9%. Import Restrictions in India: India imports over 80% of its silver. New import restrictions in 2026 reduced supply inflows and raised local premiums, affecting regional hubs like Indore’s Sarafa market in Madhya Pradesh. What is Gold-Silver Ratio? Investors often use the gold-silver ratio—which shows how many kilograms of silver are needed to buy one kilogram of gold—to measure market valuation. Historical Range: Over the past 8 to 10 years, the ratio usually stayed between 80 and 85. January Distortion: During the January peak, the ratio dropped to around 65, signaling that silver had become unusually expensive compared to gold. Current Level: The ratio has since adjusted back to 75–80 (with MCX levels near 66 according to Kedia Advisory). Which metal can you buy now? Both Mukul Devpura, Amit Modak, and Yash Kataria agree that gold is currently the steadier investment. Gold benefits directly from safe-haven buying, central bank purchases, and protection against global economic uncertainty. Mukul Devpura also suggests keeping an eye on platinum. Platinum has corrected from its January highs, but tight inventories (3.4 months of global demand remaining by end-2026) and growing demand from AI infrastructure could support a recovery. What Is the Future Outlook for Silver? Despite the recent drop, experts remain optimistic about silver’s structural fundamentals: Bullish Target: ₹3 Lakh to ₹4 Lakh Ajay Kedia, Founder of Kedia Advisory, expects silver to record its sixth straight annual supply deficit in 2026 (estimated at 67 million ounces), alongside a 20% increase in physical investment demand. He projects MCX silver to approach ₹3 lakh in 2026 and ₹3.50–4 lakh in 2027, supported by demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, defense, and electronics. Steady Growth Target: 10% to 15% Modak advises investors not to expect another rapid speculative surge. Instead, he views a steady annual growth rate of 10% to 15% as a realistic long-term expectation, supported by industrial expansion, currency depreciation, and rising supply chain costs. Yash Kataria expects gold to lead the next precious metals rally, but notes that silver will regain upward momentum once industrial usage and investor buying align again. Key Advice for Investors: Devpura emphasizes that investors should avoid chasing past winners. High returns in a previous year do not guarantee future gains. Investment choices should always align with individual risk tolerance, cash needs, and overall borrowing costs.