This time, there are indications of a weak monsoon in Madhya Pradesh. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast, 47 districts of the state, including Bhopal, Indore, and Jabalpur, may receive below-normal rainfall. The state is expected to receive 30 to 32 inches of rainfall compared to the average of 37.3 inches. Meanwhile, the monsoon entry is also likely to be delayed by 5 to 8 days from the scheduled time, meaning it may arrive after June 20. According to the Meteorological Department, only 8 districts in Indore, Ujjain, Sagar, and Chambal divisions are expected to receive normal rainfall, while most districts may experience below-average rainfall. Rainfall is likely to remain weak in June. However, the monsoon may perform somewhat better in July. According to experts, the El Niño effect could be the main reason behind the weak monsoon. Its impact affects the speed of monsoon winds and rainfall patterns. In the situation of low rainfall, concerns are also being raised about the possibility of deepening crises in crop production, as well as drinking water and irrigation in the state. Where and how will the monsoon be this year? Less rainfall – production will decrease, water crisis, too The state received more than normal rainfall in the years 2024 and 2025. Due to this, crops benefited significantly. Soybean production increased by up to 2 quintals per hectare. Similarly, wheat and gram also received good water. This increased production. Wheat production was also good. This is the reason why the government itself purchased more than 104 tons of wheat at the support price. If there is less rainfall this year, then difficulties may arise for irrigation, along with drinking water. Along with crops, a drinking water crisis will also emerge. Despite good rainfall last year, there are many districts in the state where there is a water crisis. In Indore and Gwalior, people have already taken to the streets for water. People are troubled by water in many districts, including Gwalior. Due to not having good rainfall this year, the drinking water crisis will also deepen in the future. Less than normal rainfall in June The Meteorological Department has stated that Madhya Pradesh will receive below-normal rainfall in June. The monsoon will perform somewhat better in July. Monsoon will weaken due to El Niño The Meteorological Department has said that the reason behind the weak monsoon is El Niño. The effect of El Niño may be visible in June. There is a possibility of a weak to moderate level El Niño persisting in July and August as well. Due to El Niño, ocean water becomes abnormally warm, accompanied by changes in wind patterns. Its impact disrupts the rainfall cycle worldwide. There is a severe drought in some places, while torrential rains and floods occur in others. I n simple words, when El Niño is active, it will block the monsoon winds coming from the Pacific Ocean towards India. This will affect rainfall. Now know, how much rainfall occurred in which year Least rainfall occurred in 2017, and heavy rains in 2019 Looking at the rainfall data of 10 years, the least rainfall occurred in the year 2017. The normal average rainfall of the state is 37.3 inches. Compared to this, an average of 29.9 inches of rainfall was recorded. In the year 2018, 34.3 inches of rainfall were recorded. The highest rainfall was 53 inches in the year 2019. Meanwhile, in 2021 and 2023, the rainfall was only slightly below normal. In 2024, 44.1 inches of rain fell, and in 2025, the figure reached 45.2 inches. Thus, it can be said that the state has been receiving good rainfall for 7 years. Now the same expectations are from this year’s monsoon as well. Now, understand the picture of rainfall in 2025 through graphics 121% rainfall… 15% more than the estimate, ‘very heavy’ rain fell in 30 districts, including Bhopal Last year, the monsoon rained heavily in the state. The monsoon lasted for a total of 3 months and 28 days, and for the third time in 10 years, the highest amount of rainfall was recorded. Meanwhile, 30 districts, including Bhopal and Gwalior, experienced ‘very heavy’ rainfall. Overall, Guna was the district with the highest rainfall. The entire season saw 65.7 inches of rain there, while Sheopur received 216.3% rainfall compared to the average. Shajapur was the district where the least rainfall occurred, with only 28.9 inches (81.1%). 50 districts recorded rainfall above their quota. The Meteorological Department had also released its assessment regarding the monsoon, in which it estimated 106 percent rainfall in the state during the entire monsoon season. 15 percent more rain fell than this estimate. Districts in the Gwalior-Chambal division received double the rainfall. Understand like this, the math of less-more rain… Post navigation Storms and rain lash UP during Nautapa heatwave:Winds touch 100 kmph in Lucknow-Prayagraj belt; hailstorm alert issued across 24 districts Bashir Badr made ghazal the language of the common man:Kumar Vishwas says, ‘wherever he stood, mushaira became grand from that very spot’
