Vodafone Idea shares rally 35% in last 1 month:Should you invest at current levels? Find out what experts say

The recent developments in Vodafone Idea (VI) have once again reignited the hopes of retail investors who are trapped in the defunct telecom, Vodafone Idea (VI). On the sidelines of the reduction of the Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) by the government of India for the struggling telecom, and the appointment of Kumar Mangalam Birla as the company’s Non-Executive Chairman, the shares of the company have jumped 35% in the last one month and 14% in the last 5 days. Retail investors are puzzled whether they should buy VI shares after the recent rally or not! Retail investors’ shareholding shrinks in VI? As per information given on the website of the BSE, the share of retail investors in VI as of March 2026 quarter end stood at 3.79%. This is lower than that in previous quarters. These must be investments made by the common man via demat accounts. Additionally, small investors also invest via mutual funds. The share of mutual funds in the bewildered telecom stood at 5.93%. While, the government of India holds a 49% stake in Vodafone-Idea, being the company’s largest shareholder. Should investors make fresh entry at current levels? According to Halder, people should maintain a strict stop loss of ₹10 per share. As per the technical charts, the stock can rise up to ₹13.50 apiece level. Albeit, he hasn’t recommended retail investors to buy this stock. Likewise, MarketFeds Analytics, CMT CFTe, co-founder, Lovelesh Sharma says that the stock has got strong support at ₹9.5 per share. He adds that technically, the stock has been based out at ₹8.5 – ₹10 per share. Similarly, Mantri Finmart, founder, Arun Mantri says that support is placed around ₹10 apiece. Vodafone Idea continues to reel under huge debt. There is no buying recommendation on this scrip. The shares ride on news which come every now and then. – PHD Capital, founder and CEO, Pradip Halder Short-term target on VI: Sharma also shared short-term to mid-term term targets on the telecom scrip. Both he and Mantri, see the stock at around ₹15 level in the medium term. I continue to be bullish on Vodafone Idea. In coming months, we can see this stock reaching towards higher levels of ₹15 – ₹19. -MarketFeds Analytics, CMT CFTe, co-founder, Lovelesh Sharma The trend of the stock is good with support placed around ₹10 for the near term with target placed around ₹14-15 levels. Investors may keep strict SL below ₹9 for the targets of ₹15 levels. -Mantri Finmart, founder, Arun Mantri All the three experts declined to share long-term view on the scrip. Govt reduces VI’s AGR dues by 27% The government has provided significant relief to Vodafone-Idea by reducing its AGR dues by 27%. As of last December, these dues were ₹87,695 crore, which has now been reduced to ₹64,046 crore. A committee of the Department of Telecommunications re-assessed the calculation of the dues, following which this decision was taken. No Money to be Paid for 5 Years, Recovery to Start from 2031 The government did not only reduce the dues but also provided a 5-year relief (moratorium) for payment. The new payment schedule is as follows: Initial 5 years: The company will not have to make any payments on the dues. FY32 to FY35: In these four years, the company will have to pay a minimum of ₹100 crore each year. FY36 to FY41: The remaining amount will have to be paid in 6 annual installments, which will amount to approximately ₹10,608 crore per year. Additional Dues: Dues of ₹124 crore from 2018-19 will have to be paid between March 2026 and March 2031, which was not part of the relief package. AGR Dispute: Legal Battle Ongoing Since 2019 The AGR dispute began in 2019 when the Supreme Court had ordered that telecom companies would have to pay licence fees to the government on non-telecom revenue as well. At that time, the government’s calculation of VI’s dues was ₹58,254 crore, while the company was stating it to be ₹21,500 crore. After a lengthy legal process, in 2025, the court, while hearing the curative petition, allowed the government to recalculate the dues.