IPL media rights to remain stagnant at $5.4 billion:Why world’s biggest cricket league may suffer ₹16 crore loss per match value?

It seems like the Indian Premier League cricket media rights growth has hit a saturation point, as it is expected that the per-match basis valuation of the cash-rich league will dip by a whopping 13% (₹16 crore) from ₹123.91 crore to ₹107.95 crore. The primary reason, at first glance, looks like the increasing number of games in the league, but there are multiple factors at play here. As per Media Partners Asia’s report, the two decades of compounding growth of IPL media rights have hit a blockade. MPA published “The IPL: Teams, Rights Valuations” on March 24, projecting that the 2028–32 rights cycle will hold flat at ₹50,661 crore ($5.4 billion) in total. It is worth noting that there is not much effect on the overall value of the media rights, but the increasing number of games has reduced the market value of each game. Number of matches increases, but market value stays almost the same As per the same report, the rights value (₹50,661 crore) of the next IPL cycle (2028-32) is expected to be the same as the current 2023–27 period, but representing a 13% decline on a per-match basis. The firm credits the per-match degradation to the expanded 94-match format, which adds volume without a corresponding increase in value. The question arises, why is the number of games increasing, but there’ll not be a multiple-fold development in overall rights value? Emergence of JioHotstar caused the IPL market to come to a halt The current rights cycle of IPL was already almost triple that of the 2018–22 period, when Star India held consolidated rights for ₹23,469.5 crore ($2.55 billion). A major reason behind the dramatic leap in the previous cycle was that two companies were involved in a bidding war for the rights. Also Read: 11 seats at Chinnaswamy Stadium will always be kept empty: RCB, KSCA to honour stampede victims with memorial plaque In the 2022 auction, the rights were split across packages for the first time. Viacom18, backed by Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries, paid around ₹28,163.4 crore ($3 billion) to secure digital rights, while Disney paid ₹29,102.18 crore ($3.01 billion) to retain television. That head-to-head rivalry between the two giants was the engine of the near-threefold increase. However, that equation will not repeat since Viacom18 and Disney’s Indian operations merged to form JioHotstar and unified all IPL rights under one platform. It has removed the primary source of competitive tension from the market. Ban on betting apps resulted in ₹18,775 crore loss for current IPL media rights holders Apparently, the ban on betting apps(real money gaming) companies and ed-tech as per BCCI policy last year, narrowed down the Advertising revenue growth from 18% CAGR to 7% CAGR this year. Ultimately, the rights holders in the current cycle faced cumulative losses of $1.8–2 billion (₹16898.04 crore – ₹18775.6 crore). Reportedly, the AI sector might offer some relief, but it won’t make up for the whole loss. Also Read: Yash Dayal ruled out due to ‘personal reasons’: RCB pacer facing rape charges, will remain ‘under contract’ At the franchise level, media rights now account for 75% of total revenues, up from 48% in 2017. EBITDA margins have expanded from an average of 10% in the league’s first cycle to 34% currently – but MPA warns that this operating leverage amplifies downside risk when rights values correct. What’s the future of IPL rights then if the media market does not increase? Although media revenues are dipping, non-media revenues have been growing at a 22% CAGR since the pandemic. As per Mihir Shah, vice president of India at MPA, said the rights reset in 2028 “marks the beginning of a period in which franchise value creation depends on building the non-media revenue base, focusing on sponsorship, international presence and digital monetisation.” Shah added that owners and investors pricing franchises on current EBITDA multiples need to account for both the rights cycle headwind and the concentration risk it implies, cautioning that “the window at current multiples may be shorter than the market assumes.” T20 WC viewership set record, but JioHotstar is still in loss On the digital side, MPA notes that JioHotstar recently surpassed 70 million concurrent users during the ICC T20 World Cup finals, with further viewership records expected in the 2026 IPL season. However, the report cautions that audience scale has yet to generate the monetisation needed to support current rights pricing. There’s still a gap between what streaming platforms earn and what they spend on rights, remaining the dominant factor constraining 2028 valuations. What’s Media Asia Partners’ report about? The report covers IPL media rights history from the 2008 auction through the current cycle, with forward projections based on MPA’s proprietary financial model.