Govt to release Feb 2026 retail inflation data today:Analysts expect CPI inflation below RBI’s 4% target for the 13 th straight month

India’s Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI) is expected to publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation data for the month of February 2026 at 4 pm on Thursday, 12 March 2026. The retail inflation is expected to inch upwards, sequentially, from an 8-month high of 2.75% in January. The CPI inflation had risen sharply in both the rural and urban segments to 2.73% and 2.77%, respectively, in the preceding month. The annual percentage rise in prices of goods and services had continuously increased in last three months running into January 2026.
The inflation figures had remained below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target of 4% for the 12th straight month in January. And analysts place the inflation metric below the target for the 13th straight month in February 2026. Retail inflation trend in FY 2025–26 (new data series)
RBI raised India’s inflation projections for FY26 to 2.1% While delivering the previous Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statement in February 2026, the RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra had said that the MPC had decided to increase India’s inflation projections for FY26 to 2.1%. According to the top bank, inflation in the country had largely fallen from April 2025 to December 2025, after which, the price growth rate started to rise from January 2026 onwards. India moved to new CPI series India updated the base year for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2024, which would help provide a more accurate measure of inflation based on current consumption patterns. Changes in inflation basket under 2024 series: Under the new series 2024, the government increased number of items from 299 to 358 to calculate inflation. Good items were increased from 259 to 308 Services items were increased from 40 to 50 Examples of new items added to inflation basket: How inflation is calculated? Retail inflation is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks changes in prices of everyday items such as food, fuel and services. Inflation rises when demand outpaces supply and falls when supply exceeds demand.