Vodafone Idea shares hit intraday high of 8%:Stock gains traction after govt’s relief on AGR repayment; experts weigh if it’s a ‘ticking time bomb’

Shares of debt-laden telecom operator Vodafone Idea (Vi) surged up to 8%, hitting an intraday high of ₹12.40 on Friday, January 9, after the company received long-term relief from the government on payment of Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues. The rally came after the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) granted Vi a 15-year repayment timeline, allowing the company to clear its AGR liabilities in instalments. Repayment to begin in March 2026 As per the DoT communication, the repayment plan covers AGR dues from FY2006–07 to FY2018–19, with payments scheduled as follows: Committee to review AGR liabilities The government will also constitute a committee to re-examine AGR dues. If the outstanding amount is revised, Vodafone Idea will be required to pay the revised dues within six years starting from 2036. Market experts remain divided on whether the move marks a turning point for Vodafone Idea or merely delays financial stress, calling it a potential “ticking time bomb” if operational performance does not improve. Turning point or ticking time bomb? Experts divided on Vodafone Idea relief Market experts are split on the impact of the government’s relief package for Vodafone Idea (Vi). Aditya Arora, founder of Adlitic, believes the company is moving beyond a mere survival phase and could be entering a turnaround. According to him, Vodafone Idea’s fundamentals are gradually improving. However, Sameer Dalal of Natwarlal Sons Stockbrokers takes a more cautious view, calling the relief a “ticking time bomb.” He argues that extending repayment timelines does not address the company’s core issues. With a significantly diluted equity base, Dalal advises long-term fundamental investors to stay away from the stock. Technical view: Upside only if ₹12 level is crossed Kush Bohra, founder of Kushbohra, has advised investors to hold their positions. He noted that the stock has been consolidating around the ₹12 level since late December, with strong resistance visible in options data. Bohra recommends staying invested with a stop-loss at ₹11.30. At last count, the stock was trading around ₹11.78, up 2.40%. Stock up 60% in six months Vodafone Idea shares have staged a recovery in recent months: However, Bloomberg data shows mixed analyst sentiment. Of the 22 analysts tracking the stock, only five have a Buy rating, 10 recommend Sell, and seven suggest Hold. Government now the largest shareholder The central government is currently the largest shareholder in Vodafone Idea, holding around 49% stake. The stake rose after the company converted part of its spectrum and interest dues into equity in recent years. How AGR led to ₹83,400 crore debt The AGR (Adjusted Gross Revenue) dispute dates back to changes in telecom policy: By March 2025, Vodafone Idea’s AGR-related dues had ballooned to around ₹83,400 crore, covering license fees and spectrum usage charges (SUC) for the period FY2006–07 to FY2018–19. The court later allowed the government to re-examine dues up to FY2016–17, softening its earlier stance.