Govt to release Nov 2025 retail inflation data today:Analysts expect CPI inflation below RBI’s 4% target for the 10th straight month

The government of India’s Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI) is expected to publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation data for the month of November 2025 at 4 pm on Friday, 12 December 2025. The retail inflation is expected to inch upwards (sequentially in November) from record lows of 0.25% in October. The rate of annual rise in prices of goods and services had eased to record lows of 0.25% in October 2025. The CPI-based inflation had softened in both the rural and urban segments to -0.25% and 0.88%, respectively. Retail Inflation Trends in last 13 months:
The inflation figures have remained below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target of 4% for the ninth straight month, running into October. According to the government of India’s publication, inflation in India had fallen to record low levels due to the reduced Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates and fall in prices of food items like vegetables, pulses and spices. How much had vegetables, pulses spices become cheaper in October? Vegetables have become cheaper in October as compared to the year-ago period. The prices of veggies had fallen by over 27% as compared to the same month last year. Likewise, pulses have become cheaper by over 16% and spices by 3%. Additionally, the inflation print for food and beverages had come in at negative figures of (-)3.72% in the month under consideration. ‘Goldilocks Period’ of Indian economy: While delivering the Monetary Policy Statement on Friday, 5 December, 2025, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), governor, Sanjay Malhotra, had said that the Indian economy was in a ‘rare goldilocks period’ as the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had continued its upward trajectory while inflation downward. RBI reduced India’s inflation projections for FY25 FY26 While delivering the MPC statement, the RBI governor Malhotra had said that the rate-setting panel had reduced India’s inflation projections for the remainder of FY26 and also for the first two quarters of the next fiscal.
RBI’s Projections of CPI-Inflation For FY26 FY27 – Q1 Q2