Impact of Ukrainian war on Russia’s economy:Moscow’s economy’s size to reduce by nearly 10% since invasion, indicates IMF data; Trump claims Kremlin in ‘BIG Economic Trouble’

The US President Donald Trump has claimed that “Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic Trouble” due to the cascading effect the Ukraine invasion had had on Moscow’s economy. The top Republican also said on his Truth Social handle that “most of Russia’s money are being spent on fighting Ukraine and that Moscow’s inability to capture the desired territories is “making them look like a paper Tiger.” So, is the Ukraine war really taken a toll on Russia’s economy? Lets take a deep dive into Moscow’s economic situation prior to the Ukrainian invasion and what is the situation now! Russia’s GDP crashed since Ukraine invasion: Since, the time Moscow invaded Ukraine back in February 2022, Russia’s GDP has fallen from 5.9% (2021) to 1.5% (2025), according to the data of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF’s data showed that Moscow’s economy had collapsed right in the year of invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Kyiv in February 2022, and in that very year, Russia’s GDP crashed to -1.4%. Russia’s economy has shrunk since the Ukraine invasion: According to the IMF data, in 2022, the size of Moscow’s economy was $2.3 thousand billion. From there, its economy’s size would reduce to $2.08 thousand billion as per IMF 2025 forecast. This means, the country’s economic size has shrinked by almost 10% since the Ukraine invasion. Albeit, Putin has always denied the negative impact of the invasion on its economy, but the data suggest otherwise. Trump has already written-off Russia: The US president has already written of Russia’s might. Earlier, he taunted them as ‘daed economy.’ And now he has said that they look like “ a paper tiger.” How much Russia spends on the Ukraine war? In December 2024, the US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had stated that Russia had spent over $200 billion (which translates to over ₹17 lakh crore as per Wednesday’s rupee to dollar conversion rate) since the invasion began in 2022. There are reports that Kremlin has continuously augmented defence spending ever since 2022.