RBI governor to deliver first MPC Statement since Iran war:Top bank likely to keep repo rate unchanged, increase inflation reduce GDP forecasts

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is all set to deliver its statements on decisions taken in the three-day meet which kickstarted on Monday, 6 April, 2026 and would end on Wednesday, 8 April, 2026. According to most of the analysts, the apex bank would maintain the status quo on the repo rate. This may be the second straight time that the apex bank would keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. Additionally, the top bank might also revise projections of inflation and GDP. The lender of the last resort had revised upwards FY26 projections for inflation to 2.1% and that of GDP to 7.4% in the previous policy review meet. Lets see what different stakeholders have opined on what could be the decision of the rate-setting panel: Phillip Capital: According to news daily, ANI, financial services firm, Phillip Capital, said in a report that it the apex bank will again revise India’s inflation projections upwards. While, on growth, the report flagged emerging concerns, noting that “there are downside risks to GDP growth and upside risk to inflation,” particularly due to elevated crude oil prices and currency pressures.
Bank of Baroda: The RBI is expected to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% in the upcoming MPC meeting and maintain its neutral stance, according to a report by Bank of Baroda. In the upcoming policy, the RBI may also consider measures to support liquidity and stabilise the Indian rupee, the report added.
ICRA: Aditi Nayar, chief economist, ICRA, said, “Given the uncertainty around crude oil prices and geopolitical developments, the RBI is likely to remain on pause in the April policy and closely monitor incoming inflation data before taking any further action.”
Repo rate trajectory since Feb 2025 The top bank had jumped upon the ongoing rate-slashing trajectory in February 2025, before which, it had held up the rates steady at 6.50% for two years. During the preceding MPC meet in February 2026, the RBI had maintained the neutral stance. The MPC’s accommodative stance means that the apex would look to either maintain status quo on the repo rate or slash it. While, neutral stance means that the central bank is open to either increase or decrease the benchmark policy rate depending on the situation on the ground.
Who are members of MPC? The MPC consists of three RBI officials – Sanjay Malhotra (Governor), Poonam Gupta (Deputy Governor), Rajiv Ranjan (Executive Director) and three external members – Nagesh Kumar (Director and Chief Executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, New Delhi), Saugata Bhattacharya (Economist) and Ram Singh (Director, Delhi School of Economics).