Oil boils on Iran’s complete global supply disruption threat:Market experts warn of rise in inflation in India, GDP to take a hit additionally

Crude oil prices have crossed $110 per barrel again today as rhetoric escalates between US and Iran. After US President Donald Trump threatened to turn Iran into hell, Iran has spoken of halting global supply. Due to this, the price of one barrel of Brent crude has increased by $1.71 today to reach $110.74. Market experts say that if this tension continues in this manner, crude oil prices could reach $150 per barrel. Additionally, if the increase of $1 in crude oil price persists for a year, India’s annual import bill will increase by approximately ₹16,000 crore. Indian Basket 71% costlier in 38 days India’s Concern: Direct impact on inflation and rupee India imports approximately 90% of its crude oil needs. Therefore, this situation is concerning. Iran has nearly closed the Hormuz Route. About 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes through this route. Its closure has led to a sharp increase not only in crude oil prices, but also in the prices of aluminum, fertilizer, and plastic. Inflation to increase by 0.60% if oil prices rise by $10 According to rating agency CARE Ratings Global, every $10 per barrel increase in crude oil prices could push up retail inflation in India by up to 60 basis points (0.60%). India is heavily dependent on West Asia for its oil requirements, so if the situation there deteriorates, it will also put pressure on India’s current account deficit, GDP growth, and the value of the rupee.
Trump’s ultimatum ends 8 PM, Tuesday Trump called Iran bastards and threatened a major attack if they don’t open the Strait of Hormuz. He said that if Iran doesn’t open Hormuz, he will turn it into hell. Along with this, he talked about attacking power plants and bridges in Iran. Trump wrote on social media on Sunday that Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day together in Iran, meaning there will be an attack. Iran should open the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise it will reach hell-like conditions. Iran’s counterattack: Entire region will burn After Trump’s statement, Iran has threatened that if attacks by America and Israel increase, it will shut down the global supply chain. According to an Al Jazeera report, Iran has said that it can target other maritime routes besides Hormuz. Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader, said that any major action will be responded to not just at the military level, but by impacting global energy and trade. He said that not only the Strait of Hormuz, but important maritime routes like Bab-al-Mandeb could also come under threat. OPEC+ took decision to increase production To keep oil prices stable in the market, eight OPEC+ countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia held a virtual meeting on Sunday. It was decided that oil production would be increased by 2.06 lakh barrels per day from May 2026. This step has been taken as part of changes to the additional cuts announced last year. The organization says they are closely monitoring market conditions and further changes in production can be made if needed.