A 90% spike in India’s exports to China in November:What’s driving the surge and why is the trade gap still widening?

India’s exports to China jumped nearly 90% year-on-year (YoY) in November 2025, driven by naphtha—a versatile petroleum-derived liquid used mainly to make plastics and chemicals, as well as a fuel and solvent. Other major exports included mobile phone components and shrimp. Naphtha is a building block for plastics, synthetic rubber, fibers, and chemicals, including paints, coatings, varnishes, and cleaning fluids. It is also used in the manufacture of pesticides and dyes. Interestingly, the period also saw a sharp export spike in printed circuit boards (PCBs) and mobile phone components—the same items that India imports in large quantities from China. Despite this spike in exports, India’s trade deficit with China is likely to hit a record $106 billion in 2025, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). In November, nearly 80% of India’s imports from China comprised electronics, machinery, chemicals, and plastics, with electronics imports reaching $38 billion in just 10 months of 2025. What Explains India’s Sudden Export Surge to China? India’s exports to China hit $2.2 billion in November 2025, up 90% from a year ago. Between April and November, exports increased 33% to $12.2 billion from $9.2 billion in 2024. According to GTRI, Naphtha held the biggest export share, up 512% in October and 172% over April-October to $1.4 billion, reflecting strong Chinese demand for liquid hydrocarbon mixture. Similarly, PCB exports rose by 8,577% YoY to $296.5 million in October, and 2,000% growth from April-October to $418 million. Mobile phone component exports also rose 82% to $362 million, an unusual trend given India’s large imports of these items from China, GTRI research show. Why Does India’s Export Performance Swing So Widely? India’s export growth to China is uneven and limited, driven mainly by naphtha and a few niche electronics items. Traditional exports remain weak: iron ore shipments fell 1.2% in October and were down 30% during April–October, while shrimp exports showed only modest growth. What Makes India’s Leading Exports So Unpredictable? India’s three largest exports to China—naphtha, iron ore, and shrimp—exhibit sharp YoY volatility, indicating dependence on shifts in Chinese demand, prices, and policy rather than a stable export strategy. Normally, import values are higher than export values because imports include the cost of freight and insurance (CIF), while exports are recorded free on board (FOB), meaning costs and risks transfer from the seller to the buyer at the point of shipment. “On that logic, India reporting lower imports from China than China reports as exports is unusual, and may point to under-invoicing of imports to reduce customs duties—an issue that warrants investigation,” GTRI notes.